Penn State vs Michigan
3:30 PM EST, Saturday, November 27, 2020
The better bet to post just might be which coach gets a pink slip first. Harbaugh must be down to his final days in Ann Arbor, but I do think James Franklin will be given a pass in light of his monster recruiting efforts and success. Nevertheless, it has been an extraordinarily difficult year for both teams and no one saw Penn State going 0-5 SU and ATS. My free pick last week, though, was on Iowa, who has risen to the upper tier of the Big-12 power ratings.
The betting flows so far show that 65% of the tickets are on Michigan, BUT 63% of the money bet is on Penn State. The current line in the market is offered with Michigan as a 2-point favorite. This betting trend can push the line to pick-em by game time.
No one saw Penn State, who was a preseason Top-10 team and a dark horse in the futures market to win the Big Ten, getting off to an imperfect 0-5 SU and ATS start. However, road dogs, who have lost four or more consecutive games SU and ATS have earned a money-making 16-10 ATS record good for 62% winning bets since 2006. The ‘UNDER’ is also appealing I this matchup noting that road dogs that are winless in their first five conference games and have lost five or more consecutive games to the spread have seen the ‘UNDER’ produce a 15-6 record good for 71% winning bets.
By the way, Michigan is 1-12 ATS for 8% winning bets that failed to cover the spread by an average of 11 points in games played since 2006. https://twitter.com/JohnRyanSports1/status/1331577827611844612?s=20
One more thing. The following betting system has earned a profitable ATS record over the last 15 seasons and underscores how cheap Penn State has become in the market. The requirements are to be on road teams that have failed to cover the spread by a total of 35 or more points over their last three games and are facing a team that has seen the total go ‘OVER’ by 28 or more points in their last three games.
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Great stuff, John! It will be interesting to see how Michigan performs with Cade McNamara under center. Seems like provided a spark last week, but the defense is a sieve and seem outmatched by almost every team they play.